The southwest monsoon in India for 2026 is expected to begin in early June, with the official onset forecast around the first week of June in Kerala, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The season will extend until late September, though rainfall is predicted to be below normal at 92% of the long-period average.
Monsoon Onset in 2026
The IMD has indicated that the southwest monsoon will likely make its onset over Kerala in the first week of June 2026, marking the traditional start of the rainy season. From Kerala, the monsoon typically advances northward, covering the entire country by mid-July. While the onset date is expected to be near normal, the overall rainfall distribution will be weaker compared to recent years.
Seasonal Duration
Start: Early June 2026 (Kerala)
Peak: July–August 2026
Withdrawal: Late September to early October 2026
This four-month period is crucial for India’s agriculture, as nearly half of the country’s farmland depends on monsoon rains for irrigation.
Forecast and Rainfall Expectations
The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), which is 87 cm for the June–September season. This translates to around 80 cm of rainfall nationwide. The weaker monsoon is attributed to El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically reduce rainfall over South Asia. However, other climate factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole may partially offset El Niño’s impact.
Regional Implications
Southern India: Onset in Kerala will be near normal, but rainfall may taper off in later months.
Central India: Key agricultural states like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh may face deficits.
Northern India: Rainfall may be erratic, with some regions experiencing drought-like conditions.
Eastern India: States such as West Bengal and Odisha could see uneven distribution of rain.
Preparedness Measures
Experts recommend:
Crop diversification to reduce dependence on water-intensive crops.
Efficient water management to conserve reservoir and groundwater levels.
Contingency planning for drought-prone regions.
India’s monsoon in 2026 will likely begin on time in early June but deliver below-normal rainfall through September, requiring proactive measures in agriculture and water management to mitigate its impact.
